Greg Selinger may have won the party, but he hasn’t won the people.

According to a new survey conducted by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press, two-in-five Manitoba adults, 40%, think the NDP made the wrong decision keeping Selinger at the helm.

Selinger campaigned to keep his job as premier and leader of the provincial NDP leading up to the party’s annual convention in March. While he beat out Theresa Oswald and Steve Ashton in the delegate vote, much discussion from candidates swirled about who could lead the party to victory next election.

According to the same poll, 42% of Manitobans believe that Selinger’s leadership makes an NDP win next election less likely.

One-in-ten,11%, believe the NDP are more likely to defeat the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals with Selinger as leader, while 37% feel the party’s choice for top spot has no bearing on the NDP’s chances of winning the next election.

Survey highlights

- 58% of Manitobans who currently support NDP believe party made the right leadership decision; 27% believe it was the wrong choice.

When those who voted for the NDP in 2011 are factored in, however, the results are mixed: 41% of those who voted NDP in 2011 think the NDP made the right choice, compared to 40% who think the party erred by keeping Selinger.

- 19% of current NDP supporters (11% province-wide) are optimistic about the Selinger government's chances of winning the 2016 provincial election.

However, more than four-in-ten NDP supporters said that their choice of leader makes no difference (42%), with 33 percent indicating that they are less likely to win with Mr. Selinger as their party’s chief.

- 54% of PC supporters think the New Democrats made a mistake by confirming Selinger’s leadership; 26% think they made the right choice.

- 55% of PC supporters don't believe the NDP can win the next election with Selinger; 29% think it makes no difference and 7% think the NDP is more likely to win under Selinger.

- 44% of Liberal supporters also thought keeping Selinger as NDP leader was the wrong decision versus 29% who thought it was the right call.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews between March 17th and April 1st, 2015 among a random and representative sampling of 1,005 Manitoba adults, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.