PCs approaching 'super majority' territory: Poll
Cameron MacLean, CTV Winnipeg
Published Saturday, April 16, 2016 5:00AM CST
Last Updated Saturday, April 16, 2016 5:51PM CST
Signs point to a Progressive Conservative majority government as the party appears to be building steam heading into Tuesday’s election.
A new poll by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia pegs overall support for the PCs at 55 per cent among decided and leaning voters. That’s five percentage points higher than the Mainstreet poll on April 5.
With that increase in support, Mainstreet says the PCs are approaching “super majority” territory.
Among decided voters, the PCs have 46 per cent support, with eight per cent of undecided voters saying they are leaning towards the PCs.
The most recent poll surveyed 1,809 people on April 14, asking them who they would vote for if the election were held that day. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The NDP remained a distant second with 26 per cent, a two percentage point increase since the last poll.
The Liberals continued their slide in the polls, falling six points to 11 per cent. The Manitoba Greens remained unchanged at nine per cent.
Mainstreet President Quito Maggi gave a blunt assessment of the reason for why this election has gone the way it has.
“This election was lost the day (Premier) Greg Selinger decided to run,” he said in the report.
He pointed to a Mainstreet poll conducted in November 2014 after five NDP caucus members broke ranks and called for the premier to step down. Mainstreet asked voters whether they thought Selinger should resign, and found that 57 per cent agreed, with 45 per cent of respondents completely agreeing.
Those numbers closely match the current rates of support for the PCs overall and among decided voters.
A sign of weakness for the PCs, and a sign of hope for the NDP and Liberals, is a fall in support among undecided leaning voters. They now lean more heavily towards the NDP (11 per cent) and Liberals (12 per cent), with the PCs in third (8 per cent).
Maggi said this indicates the PCs might be approaching their maximum level of support.
The NDP also showed a significant increase in strong support, from 63 per cent to 76 per cent, indicating their support likely won’t crumble in the days before the election.
Nonetheless, the NDP shouldn’t count on Liberal support breaking in their favour just before the election like it has in the past.
“The desire for change in Manitoba is so strong in fact, so disliked is Greg Selinger that the collapsing Liberal vote went overwhelmingly to the PCs throughout the election,” said Maggi.
Support for the NDP remains highest in Winnipeg, at 30 per cent, compared to 18 per cent outside of Winnipeg. Those numbers are still far behind the PCs, which have 47 per cent support within Winnipeg and 68 per cent in the rest of Manitoba.
Support for the Liberals sits at 12 per cent within Winnipeg and 10 per cent in the rest of Manitoba. The Greens have 11 per cent support within Winnipeg and four per cent in the rest of Manitoba.
Due to smaller sample sizes, the margin of error is larger for Winnipeg and the rest of Manitoba, at +/- 3.09 per cent and 3.45 per cent respectively.