How Manitobans would vote in the U.S. election

If Manitobans could head to the polls in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, the majority would be voting for the Democratic Party, according to new data.

The poll from Probe Research found 71 per cent of Manitobans said they prefer Kamala Harris and vice-presidential running mate Tim Walz, while 24 per cent said they’d vote for Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. Four per cent said they’d choose another third-party candidate.

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The survey found Harris is the preferred president among most of Manitoba’s demographic groups, including women, those over the age of 55, and people living in Winnipeg.

Nearly 90 per cent of provincial NDP supporters said they’d vote for Harris, while 51 per cent of PC supporters would choose Trump.

As for who Manitobans think will come out the winner, 43 per cent said Harris, 27 per cent said Trump and 29 per cent were unsure.

Probe Research also found nearly 80 per cent of Manitobans are interested in and paying attention to the U.S. election, with older adults the most likely to pay close attention to the race.

Nearly three quarters of respondents believe Trump’s re-election would have a negative impact on Canada, and 64 per cent think it would cause more people to come to Canada to seek asylum.

The poll also shows that nearly 40 per cent Manitobans have opted not to travel to the U.S. in the next six months due to the political climate.

For this survey, Probe Research sampled 800 Manitoba adults between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1.

No margin of error can be ascribed because an online panel is a non-probability sample. However, for the purpose of comparison, a sample of 800 adults would have a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be higher within each population sub-group.

The full report can be found online.