'It is getting grim': Record-low precipitation in Manitoba has led to very dry soil

The Manitoba government is promising more consultation with First Nation communities on a controversial flood-prevention project. Manitoba Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler speaks to media in Winnipeg on Thursday, July 26, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Steve Lambert

WINNIPEG -

Manitoba's infrastructure minister says it is getting grim for agriculture in the province due to record-low precipitation which is leading to very dry soil.

Record-low precipitation in Manitoba since September 2020 has led to soil moisture that range from well-below normal to record dry in some places.

Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler made the announcement on Thursday, noting most of the southern watershed, which consists of Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, has had less than five per cent of normal rainfall.

The province notes the flows and water levels are below normal to well-below normal in most of the southern and central Manitoba rivers and lakes. These dry conditions are expected to continue until fall of 2021.

Schuler said if conditions persist and strain continues in the rivers and reservoir water levels, the province's agriculture minister can declare a serious water shortage under the water protection act.

"We still believe that we have enough reservoir water, however it is getting grim in so far as agriculture because we started out so dry that even a moderate amount of rain simply gets absorbed and it produces no flow in any of our water ways," Schuler said.

Manitoba is operating its water control structures to help deal with the low water levels, including the Fairford Water Control Structure, the Shellmouth Dam and the Portage Reservoir.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Schuler noted June is normally the month with the most precipitation, followed by July and then May. He provided the following numbers to demonstrate the low levels of precipitation this year:

• For the Red River Valley Basin the average precipitation for June is 104 mm, for July it is 85 mm, and for May it is 70 mm. Last month there was 62 mm, so far in July there’s been 12 mm, and in May 2021 it was 33.5 mm; and
• For the Assiniboine River Basin the average precipitation for June is 92 mm, for July it is 68 mm and for May it is 60 mm. Last month there was 78 mm, so far in July there’s been 19 mm, and in May 2021 it was 36 mm;

The minister also provided the following numbers to demonstrate how low the water levels and flows are this year:

• The average flow for the Red River at Emerson for this time of year is 6,730 cubic feet per second (CFS). As of Thursday, it was at 855 CFS;
• The average flow of the Assiniboine River at Headingley for this time of year 2,920 CFS. As of Thursday it was at 472 CFS;

Schuler added that the Red River is the driest it has been since 1980, and the Assiniboine River is the driest it has been since 1961. He noted that without the Shellmouth Reservoir, the levels of the Assiniboine River would be even lower.

The minister said the dry conditions are affecting Manitoba’s lake levels as well, adding that Lake Manitoba is the driest it has ever been dating back to 1923.

“Currently, Lake Manitoba is at 810.6 feet,” Schuler said.

“This is the lowest it has ever been for this time of the year on record. Evaporation is the single greatest source of the decline, in fact, Lake Manitoba dropped one half of a foot in the last month.”

He said without substantial rain, the Hydrologic Forecast Centre predicts that Lake Manitoba will continue to decline by a half inch every week.

Schuler noted that Lake Winnipeg is at 713 feet and still within its operating level. He said although Lake Winnipeg is affected by evaporation, it isn’t as dramatic due to the size and depth of the lake compared to Lake Manitoba.

Dauphin Lake, Lake Wahtopanah and Lake of the Prairies are also still at or within their operating levels.

However, this is not the case for Lake St. Martin or Lake Winnipegosis.

“Lake St. Martin is at a historic low level for this time of the year, and at 796.5 feet is one-half foot below its optimal operating level,” Schuler said.

“Lake Winnipegosis is at a historic low at 829.9 feet, which is below its 831-foot average level.”

Schuler noted that the province understands that these dry conditions are a big challenge for the agriculture industry and for Manitobans.

“Our government is working with industry and other levels of government on how we can be of assistance to impacted producers,” he said.