WINNIPEG -- Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre is predicting a low risk of major spring flooding this year.

Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler made the announcement in a news release on Friday, saying the risk of flooding is still dependent on the weather from now until the spring melt.

Schuler said the government remains vigilant and prepared, and will continue to monitor watershed conditions.

“Our Hydrologic Forecast Centre provides accurate and timely hydrologic forecasts, and monitors river flows and lake levels daily throughout the year,” he said,

“We have complete confidence that our government is prepared to respond to any potential hydrologic event and ensure the safety of all Manitobans.”

According to the province, the risk of major spring flooding is low for southern and central Manitoba basins, because of below normal soil moisture at freeze-up, and below normal winter precipitation levels. 

Manitoba added that the risk of major spring flooding is also low to moderate for the northern basins, including the Saskatchewan and Churchill River basins. 

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre also reported that the Red River Floodway is not expected to be operated under normal and favourable weather conditions. The province noted the floodway could be operated under unfavourable scenarios in order to reduce water levels in the city of Winnipeg.

Manitoba said it expects minimal operation of the Portage Diversion to reduce ice-related damage on the lower Assiniboine River. The Shellmouth Reservoir is at its optimal level to meet water supply needs, while also providing sufficient storage for spring flooding protection.

Schuler added that Manitoba’s Emergency Measures Organization is holding a series of seminars in order for local authorities and emergency services personnel to provide the latest forecast on water levels for the province’s major water systems. 

These virtual seminars will take place on:

  • Monday, March 8 from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the subjects of the Red River Valley and tributaries;
  • Tuesday, March 9 from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the subjects of the Assiniboine and Souris Rivers and tributaries, and Central Manitoba; and
  • Wednesday March 10 from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the subjects of the Red River north of Winnipeg, Interlake and northern Manitoba.

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre will release a second spring thaw outlook at the end of March.

The 2021 spring thaw outlook report can be found online.