Slipping support for PCs in Manitoba ridings doesn't bode well for next election: expert

After Progressive Conservatives edged out a victory by just under 200 votes in the Tory stronghold of Fort Whyte, one expert says the slipping support doesn't bode well for the party in the next election.

Obby Khan, the former Blue Bomber and business owner, is the unofficial winner of the Fort Whyte byelection. However, Khan’s path to victory was in doubt at times, as he and Liberal Candidate Willard Reaves exchanged leads throughout the night—at one time only a single vote separated the two.

No matter how close the race was, Khan said a win is a win. For his party, the near-photo finish could be problematic.

"I’ve heard you. I’ve heard your concerns and tonight was a clear message to us," Khan said following his victory Tuesday night.

Khan managed to hold on to the traditionally Tory seat for the PC party, which was vacated when former Premier Brian Pallister stepped aside last year.

"This is a huge badge for me, I have the honour of being the first Canadian Muslim elected in the history of Manitoba," Khan said.

But there were tense moments for his party and campaign team. Khan won by 197 votes in the end—by far the smallest margin of victory for a Tory in Fort Whyte’s history. It's a sign voters may be dissatisfied with the governing party, with a general election 18 months away.

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson chalks it up to the pandemic.

“They’re finding challenges and they’re looking for someone to pinpoint it on," she said on Wednesday. "That's what we’re here for. We’re Government.”

Royce Koop, a political studies professor at the University of Manitoba, said the results indicate Stefanson and her team are currently struggling.

"It kind of speaks to the government’s standing and the party’s standing right now. I think it’s a little embarrassing," said Koop.

However, Koop said this doesn’t guarantee things will play out the same way in a general election as voting patterns can differ in byelections.

“We certainly can’t think that anything that happened last night is going to have any direct influence on a provincial election that is coming up, it’s a mistake to think that."

Pollster Curtis Brown from Probe Research said Tory support has been slipping in urban ridings like Fort Whyte for a while.

“That doesn’t bode well for the next election next year and other suburban seats," he said.

The results of the Fort Whyte byelection are unofficial. Elections Manitoba said official results will be posted Friday.