Study paints grim picture of polar bear survival in the Arctic

A new study featuring experts from the University of Manitoba is shedding light on the possible survival of polar bears in the Arctic.

The report, published in Ecology Letters on Wednesday, included researchers from Polar Bears International, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance and MacEwan University, in addition to the U of M. The scientists were looking to understand which polar bears would be able to adapt to a warming Arctic climate.

The report found generally that polar bears living at lower latitudes, such as around Churchill, may be the most genetically suited for climate change, while those in the high Arctic are more at risk, as they rely more on frozen sea ice for hunting and mating, and would struggle to adapt to a warming climate.

"The problem with climate change is that in probably around 10 years from now, we will see the entire Arctic becoming ice-free in the summer," said Ruth Rivkin, a postdoctoral research fellow with the University of Manitoba. "So polar bears in the high Arctic are not genetically suited for those environments, because those are not the environments that they're currently existing in. And so we think that this might be contributing to some of their vulnerability to climate change."

Rivkin said the sea ice disappearance will have an impact on all polar bears, not just ones further north.

"Polar bears are adapted to a cold environment," she said. "They survive well in cold conditions, and they rely on sea ice for a lot of their basic necessities. So as sea ice continues to disappear and becomes less available during the summer, that is going to be quite problematic for many bears.

"That being said, we don't expect polar bears to go completely extinct. They will likely be able to survive, but we probably will see smaller population sizes, and we might see polar bears existing in a smaller portion of the Arctic than they currently exist."

Rivkin is hopeful the study will help guide future conservation efforts.

"We have seen cases of polar bear sub-populations that are doing fairly well, at least in the short term," she said. "And so there is the possibility that some groups of bears are already adapting, and we might see numbers fluctuate or rebound in those cases."