Study suggests Arctic to see more rain than snow earlier than expected
Research suggests that rain will become more common in the Arctic than snow and, because of climate change, it could happen earlier than predicted with severe consequences for the region's environment, its people, and its animals.
A study led by University of Manitoba researchers published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications says greater average rainfall amounts than previously projected are possible by 2100. And autumn rains could overtake snowfall 20 years earlier than first thought because of rapid global warming and loss of sea ice.
"When we talk about this happening in 2100, it seems like such a long time away, but it's only 80 years," said Michelle McCrystall, the study's lead researcher and a post-doctoral fellow at the university.
"That's the next generation. And if we continue the trajectory that we're going, a lot of issues might happen even faster than what we've projected."
McCrystall said the consequences of increased rain in the Arctic are huge, including flooding and melting of permafrost upon which homes, roads and airstrips are built. A rainy North would also have devastating consequences for people and wildlife.
The study says it could bring "catastrophic starvation events" to caribou, reindeer and muskox, because thick ice crusts would form from the moisture when the air cooled, making it impossible for the animals to forage.
"It's not just a problem for the reindeer, caribou and muskox, but for the people of the North that depend on them as well," said Mark Serreze, co-author of the study and director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
Some of the changes are already happening, McCrystall said. In August, rain fell for the first time in recorded history on the highest point of the Greenland ice sheet.
"The fact that we're getting rainfall on the summit of Greenland right now, and that we're maybe going to get more rainfall into the future -- it kind of staggers me."
McCrystall said it has always been known that precipitation patterns will change in the Arctic because of climate change, but not at the rate that's being seen now.
"Our projections show this will be much more intense and much more extreme than we previously thought it might be."
McCrystall said the implications of more rain in the Arctic mean that mitigating measures, including the Paris agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, are even more critical.
"If we can fall within this 1.5-degree limit, most of the Arctic at least will remain snowfall-dominated," she said.
McCrystall said she wants the study to serve as a further wake-up call for world leaders to meet global climate targets.
"I don't want this to be all doom and gloom. I want this to provide some incentive, that if we stay within these limits as set out by our global leaders, these changes won't happen," she said.
"Hopefully, this is a further example of why we need these global climate policies."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 30, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Widow looking for answers after Quebec man dies in Texas Ironman competition
The widow of a Quebec man who died competing in an Ironman competition is looking for answers.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
World seeing near breakdown of international law amid wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Amnesty says
The world is seeing a near breakdown of international law amid flagrant rule-breaking in Gaza and Ukraine, multiplying armed conflicts, the rise of authoritarianism and huge rights violations in Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar, Amnesty International warned Wednesday as it published its annual report.
Photographer alleges he was forced to watch Megan Thee Stallion have sex and was unfairly fired
A photographer who worked for Megan Thee Stallion said in a lawsuit filed Tuesday that he was forced to watch her have sex, was unfairly fired soon after and was abused as her employee.
Amid concerns over 'collateral damage' Trudeau, Freeland defend capital gains tax change
Facing pushback from physicians and businesspeople over the coming increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his deputy Chrystia Freeland are standing by their plan to target Canada's highest earners.
U.S. Senate passes bill forcing TikTok's parent company to sell or face ban, sends to Biden for signature
The Senate passed legislation Tuesday that would force TikTok's China-based parent company to sell the social media platform under the threat of a ban, a contentious move by U.S. lawmakers that's expected to face legal challenges.
Wildfire southwest of Peace River spurs evacuation order
People living near a wildfire burning about 15 kilometres southwest of Peace River are being told to evacuate their homes.
U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with big bipartisan vote
The U.S. Senate has passed US$95 billion in war aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, sending the legislation to President Joe Biden after months of delays and contentious debate over how involved the United States should be in foreign wars.
'My stomach dropped': Winnipeg man speaks out after being criminally harassed following single online date
A Winnipeg man said a single date gone wrong led to years of criminal harassment, false arrests, stress and depression.