Why one meteorologist says more tornadoes are expected to hit Manitoba this summer

Manitoba has already seen a few confirmed tornadoes this year not to mention the slew of tornado watches and warnings, but one meteorologist warns the busy season for tornadoes is just getting started.

There have been four confirmed tornado touchdowns so far this season, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC): three EF-1s on June 20 and an EF-0 on June 4.

Natalie Hasell, a warning preparedness meteorologist with ECCC, said Manitoba averages around eight to 12 tornadoes a year, so Manitobans should be prepared for more.

"This is the time, this early period of July is often the peak busy time for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the prairies and in Manitoba," said Hasell.

"So we are not done, not anywhere near. And the later part of July, August, even September, can be busy with thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, and therefore, that risk of tornadoes certainly continues through the season."

HOW DOES A TORNADO DEVELOP?

While more tornadoes should be expected this summer, how do the natural spiralling vortexes take their final destructive shapes?

Hasell said the main ingredient of any tornado is a thunderstorm. She said the wind shear or vertical profile of the wind in the atmosphere will determine what kind of storm will develop.

"So it can go from a non-severe thunderstorm that forms in 20 minutes and dissipates in a half an hour, to the very dangerous thunderstorms called supercells," she said.

"Supercells already have rotation in their updraft, so (they are) that much more prone to causing tornadoes."

She added while supercells are the most prone to create twisters, other thunderstorm formations still have the possibility to produce a tornado.

Hasell also points out that the size of the tornado does not necessarily correlate to the impact it might have. She points to the tornado that hit Elie, Man. in 2007, which was classified as an F-5.

"That storm was tiny. It was maybe a couple pixels across on radar, it was minute. But it had the strength to entirely lift and demolish a house off its foundation.

"Larger tornadoes may be stronger, but smaller ones are not weak."

OTHER INTENSE WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IN MANITOBA

With the four tornadoes in Manitoba, along with an EF-4 twister that tore through rural Alberta on Canada Day, Hasell said there has been lots of "hype" surrounding tornadoes lately. But she notes it's not just tornadoes that people need to be aware of, calling them rare compared to other weather systems that develop from thunderstorms.

"We get hail, rain, straight-line winds far more often than we get tornadoes. And luckily (tornadoes) can't leave the storm they're part of, so the damage they cause, while significant, is luckily quite small. Typically narrow as well."

She said straight-line winds can travel some distance away from storms and wreak havoc in a number of ways. Hail can shoot from the outside of storms leaving quite a large path of destruction depending on the size, and rain can lead to flash floods that Hasell said can be "quite extensive."

"We really shouldn't forget the other phenomenon associated with thunderstorms."

However, if a tornado does come roaring close to where you live, Hasell said the warnings need to be taken seriously.

"If you are out there and you can see a tornado, please seek shelter. If the tornado looks like it's not moving, it could actually be moving straight toward you," she said.

"If you hear that a tornado watch or warning is in effect, please take action, take shelter. There will be other people taking photos, you don't have to be that person. And while we do use photos and video to confirm these events, I would rather people take shelter and be safe for another day."