Manitoba modelling shows COVID-19 cases dropping through summer, severe outcomes remain high
New modelling data released by the province shows daily COVID-19 tests are dropping and will continue to drop through the summer, but severe outcomes will remain high for the next few weeks.
Manitoba public health released the modelling data on Friday, giving Manitobans a glimpse at what their summer may look like.
The data – which has projections to the end of September – shows Manitoba's current daily COVID-19 cases are under the moderate scenario and decreasing.
(Source: Province of Manitoba)
"This indicates the restrictions have been in place, and the adherence to those restrictions by the public helped reduce the spread of the virus in Manitoba – this is why we have been able to begin easing restrictions and begin charting a path to reopening," Dr. Jazz Atwal, the deputy chief provincial health officer, said on Friday.
Modelling data released in mid-May showed Manitoba was dealing with the worst-case scenario.
Now, nearly a month later – and with weeks of tighter restrictions at play – the outlook isn’t as dire.
"Our case numbers are headed in a good direction, and our vaccination rates are increasing, but we continue to see strain on our health-care system, and we continue to transfer patients out of the province for care."
(Source: Province of Manitoba)
Atwal said despite case numbers coming down in Manitoba, a high number of severe outcomes will continue over the next weeks as case counts and test positivity rates are still high.
"Severe outcomes tend to occur one to two weeks after diagnosis," Atwal said.
Hospitalizations are projected to remain in the severe scenario for the next few weeks.
The province is looking at both severe and extreme scenarios for ICU admissions as dozens of patients continue to receive care outside of the province.
Epidemiologist Cynthia Carr said the national median length of stay in hospital is as high as 14 days for the oldest population.
“People can still be in the ICU even after the virus is not detectable because that is how serious the impact is on our respiratory system, our circulation, our cerebral vascular system," she said.
"This virus attacks the body from head to toe.”
Atwal said the modelling doesn’t take into account the more transmissible delta variant as of yet.
“There is no screen yet for the delta or the kappa variant. Those are being developed, but if a positive test result doesn’t screen in for the alpha, beta, or gamma variant, those are automatically sequenced.”
The modelling also shows the daily number of COVID-19 tests has decreased and is now below projected levels.
Atwal noted this is likely related to the virus circulating less because of restrictions and adherence to the restrictions.
You can see the full modelling data here:
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Canadian gov't proposes new foreign influence registry as part of wide-spanning new bill
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is proposing a suite of new measures and law changes aimed at countering foreign interference in Canada, amid extensive scrutiny over past meddling attempts and an ever-evolving threat landscape.
Boeing Starliner capsule's first crewed test flight postponed
The long-awaited first crewed test flight of Boeing's new Starliner space capsule was called off for at least 24 hours over a technical issue that launch teams were unable to resolve in time for the planned Monday night lift-off.
Teacher charged in historical sexual assault of Calgary teenage girl
Calgary police have charged a teacher with the alleged sexual assault of a teenage girl more than 20 years ago.
Winnipeg man admits to killing four women, argues he's not criminally responsible
Defence lawyers of Jeremy Skibicki have admitted in court the accused killed four Indigenous women, but argues he is not criminally responsible for the deaths by way of mental disorder – this latest development has triggered a judge-alone trial rather than a jury trial.
Man banned from owning animals after fatal Calgary dog attack
The owner of three Calgary dogs that got loose and mauled a woman to death in 2022 has been ordered to pay a $15,000 fine within one year and banned from owning any animal for 15 years.
East-end Ottawa family dealing with massive rat infestation
Residents in Ottawa’s Elmridge Gardens complex are dealing with a rat infestation that just won’t go away. Now, after doing everything they can to try to fix the issue, they are pleading with the city to step in and help.
Mediterranean staple may lower your risk of death from dementia, study finds
A daily spoonful of olive oil could lower your risk of dying from dementia, according to a new study by Harvard scientists.
An El Nino-less summer is coming. Here's what that could mean for Canada
As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.
Newfoundland and Labrador latest province to tighten rules on Airbnbs
Newfoundland and Labrador is the latest jurisdiction to bring in stricter rules for short-term rentals, with a coming set of regulations that will force operators to register with the provincial government.