'No safe Liberal seat in Manitoba': What could happen in Manitoba in the next federal election

Searching for a new leader and down in the polls with a possible election looming, the federal Liberals could be in for a tough fight to keep the four seats they hold now.

Of Manitoba’s 14 seats, the Liberals have Winnipeg-North, Winnipeg-South, Winnipeg South-Centre, and St. Boniface.

Curtis Brown of Probe Research says they could keep a few seats or even get wiped out.

"There is no safe Liberal seat in Manitoba. I think that's fair to say," said Brown.

Maybe the most vulnerable for the Liberals is Winnipeg-South, currently held by Terry Duguid. He was recently put in the cabinet, which could help his profile.

But it's a bellwether riding where the outcome mirrors the national result between the Liberals and Conservatives. Currently the Conservatives hold a 20-plus point lead over the Liberals nationally. Andrew Enns from polling firm Leger said the riding could be in play for the Conservatives.

"The demographics in that riding set up nicely for where the Conservatives have grown support in sort of suburban areas of the country," said Enns.

St. Boniface has been a reliable seat for the Liberals, but there is no incumbent for them this time. Dan Vandal is not running again. The seat was Conservative under Stephen Harper when Shelly Glover held it.

“Definitely the Conservatives will also be looking at that seat,” said Enns.

Winnipeg South-Centre is a traditional Liberal stronghold. Ben Carr is the MP who replaced his father, Jim Carr, following his death. Brown said the Liberals lost a similar type of seat in a byelection in Toronto last year.

“Winnipeg South-Centre I think you could describe as safe-ish for the Liberals, but…it's not a lock," said Brown.

Lastly, Winnipeg-North is seen as a given for the Liberals every election because of MP Kevin Lamoureux’s personal popularity in the riding. But could even that seat be up for grabs?

"If I was, you know, betting and that, I would say that is going to be a seat that will be Liberal red after the next election, maybe the only one in the city," said Enns.

However, Brown said the Liberals should not take it for granted.

"In North Winnipeg and suburban parts of Winnipeg, the Conservatives, you know, in the last few polls that we've done, are competitive," said Brown.