The province said Tuesday it will try to keep flows confined to both the Portage Diversion and the Assiniboine River, but will resort to diverting some water into the La Salle River watershed by doing a controlled release, if necessary.
It could mean about 150 residences will have to deal with water flows, said provincial officials.
"They're thinking they're going to control it, but I've seen Mother Nature do too much with water. It won't be a controlled cut. It'll just wear it away and within a few hours, it'll be wild," said Doug Connery.
He lives near the area where the province plans to cut into the dike for the release of water. The release, tentatively slated for May 11, is being planned for Hoop and Holler Bend, which is between Southport and Newton, south of Portage la Prairie.
An area of 225 square kilometres is expected to be flooded.
The province said Monday the controlled release of water is needed to reduce the severity and risk of uncontrolled dike breaches. In an uncontrolled breach, about 850 homes would be at risk and it could affect an area of 500 square kilometres in communities including St. Eustache, Elie, St. Francois Xavier, Poplar Point, High Bluff, Starbuck, Sanford and La Salle, said the province.
Doug Connery is worried about the impact of the controlled river release on his farmland. He said it would be better to make the cut into the dike further east and away from major agriculture producers.
"Further east, past Poplar Point possibly, then drainage into the north and into pasture land," said Connery.
But the province said it had to pick this spot because it provided for the least risk and best chance of controlling the release of water.
"We've had to make some very difficult decisions. We know this is not just about a natural disaster of historical proportions on the Assiniboine. It's about people and we're doing everything we can to minimize the impacts," said Steve Ashton, the province's minister of emergency services.
Two kilometres away from the Assiniboine River and the proposed river release area is Shea Doherty's greenhouse business, Our Farm Greenhouse.
Doherty is rushing to build a four-foot-high sandbag dike.
"I'm just hoping what I've done will work," said Doherty.
The province, meanwhile, is hoping train tracks running through Newtown and Oakville will also work to hold back some of the water, when it's released from the river.
A local reeve isn't so confident and thinks the dike cut and controlled release could flood more homes than the province expects.
"Right now, that's just going to hit the south portion of those communities, but if it does go over the railway tracks, it could take out the whole town," said Kam Blight, reeve of the RM of Portage la Prairie.
On Tuesday afternoon, the province said the decision on whether or not to release water from the Assiniboine River will depend greatly on how much rain falls in the next couple of days and its impact on water levels.
If a controlled release is necessary, the province said it would likely not happen before noon on May 11.
Around 12 p.m. May 10, people in the community of Newton were racing to protect nearly 24 homes from a possible dike breach. Some also expressed worry over the pending controlled release and its possible effects in the area.
"An uncontrolled breach would be awful. (It) affects so many people. At the same time, it's hard to know our homes might be sacrificed. We're all digging in," said Kim Tooth, who lives in Newton.
The province also declared a livestock emergency Tuesday and said rising waters are affecting hundreds of producers and thousands of animals. Cattle producers near Portage la Prairie were among those racing to move thousands of animals out of the area.
Provincial officials said staff members are working to identify Crown land that can be made available for agricultural use.
Further east in Elie, residents were also hurrying to prepare.
Elie resident Don Mogk hoped Tuesday to swiftly have everything out of his basement and loaded onto a trailer and safe from flood waters.
"We could also be on (evacuation) notice so we're also trying to get everything in place before they give us an hour's notice that we have to leave," said Mogk.
Members of the Canadian Forces have been called in to help and are working to protect the area's drinking water.
"They're (identified) this as a critical area to protect from flood waters in order to continue providing clean drinking water to three municipalities," said Capt. Kevin Houlgate.
In the RM of St. Francois Xavier, others are also working to prepare.
Homes in the area are among those the controlled river release is slated to protect, but some residents aren't taking any chances.
Trevor Herback said he's raising his sandbag dike up two more feet in some areas.
"It should offer us a little bit of help but we don't know how much it will help," said Herback.
The province said the RMs of Portage la Prairie, Cartier, St. Francois Xavier and Headingley are considered at-risk areas and the province wants residents to be ready to leave their homes at a moment's notice.
A reception centre is being set up in Portage la Prairie at the Provincial Building on Tupper Street where evacuees can register and find additional information and assistance.
- with reports from CTV's Eleanor Coopsammy, Nancy Carlson and Jon Hendricks
- provincial map showing proposed location of controlled river release (PDF, 642kb)
- provincial map showing potential risk areas for uncontrolled breaches (PDF, 532kb)
More information from the province regarding flooding is available online at www.manitoba.ca/flooding
Highway information is online at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo ,by phoning 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and by checking Twitter by following @MBGov.
