Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead

The Golden Boy stands on top of the dome of the Manitoba Legislature in Winnipeg, Saturday, August 30, 2014. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods)

It has been three years since the governing Progressive Conservative party was re-elected in Manitoba, but new data shows support for the party has slipped as more Manitobans look to the NDP.

A new Probe Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press, says during the September 2019 election, 47 per cent of respondents had said they would vote for a PC candidate.

Three years later that support has dropped by around 10 percentage points to 37 per cent, according to the most recent poll.

The NDP has seen some bolstered support in that time, from 31 per cent in September 2019 to 44 per cent in September 2022.

The results of a Probe Research poll commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press in September 2022. (Source: Probe Research)

Support for the Manitoba Liberals is at 15 per cent, while three per cent say they would vote for the Greens and one per cent said they would vote for others. Overall, 15 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided or preferred not to say which party they would vote for.

Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research, told CTV News in the years since Brian Pallister's PC government was re-elected a lot has changed—namely there was a pandemic.

"Those were pretty dark days for lots of governments," MacKay told CTV News. "They sustained a lot of political damage during that time and it seems that Manitobans have not shifted back, even though the pandemic might be mostly in the rearview mirror now.

The damage seems to have been done there." 

NDP SUPPORT HAS GROWN IN WINNIPEG SINCE LAST ELECTION

In recent months, little has changed in terms of the support for the NDP and the PC parties – with more than half of Winnipeg respondents preferring the NDP over the Tories.

NDP support in Winnipeg has grown since the September 2019 election. At that time, 36 per cent of respondents said they would vote NDP, compared to 38 per cent who said they would vote PC.

That has changed in the three years since. The most recent polling shows 52 per cent prefer the NDP in the city, while just 25 per cent would vote for a PC candidate.

Probe Research tells CTV News the NDP support in Winnipeg has not moved for the past three surveys in March, June and September.

The results of a Probe Research poll commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press in September 2022. (Source: Probe Research)

Outside Manitoba's largest city is where the PCs find their base. Fifty-five per cent of decided or leaning voters outside Winnipeg remain partial to the PCs. That is compared to 31 per cent outside of Winnipeg who would vote for the NDP.

POLL FINDS 'CLEAR GENDER GAP' IN VOTER SUPPORT

The poll also paints a picture of who is voting for these parities.

"There is a clear gender gap apparent in terms of party support in Manitoba," Probe Research said in its key findings.

The poll shows male voters tend to favour the PC party, with 46 per cent saying they would vote for a conservative candidate. That is compared to 34 per cent of men who would vote NDP.

Women, the poll shows, remain with the NDP, with 53 per cent saying they would support the NDP and 27 per cent said they would favour the PCs.

"We have this almost household level polarization going on that I'm sure will make some very interesting dinner conversations as we get closer to the election," MacKay said.

The PCs have more support among those with a high school education or less (50 per cent) followed by those with a college or post-secondary education (39 per cent). The NDP has more support from university graduates (50 per cent), followed by those with a college or post-secondary education (40 per cent).

The results of a Probe Research poll commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press in September 2022. (Source: Probe Research)

The polling also shows support for the NDP from those who identify as Indigenous and BIPOC. According to the polling, of those who identify as Indigenous, 59 per cent would support NDP, 23 per cent would support the Liberal Party and 18 per cent would support the PC.

Of those who identify as BIPOC, 50 per cent said they would support NDP, 26 per cent said they would support Liberal and 25 per cent said they would support PC.

The next provincial election is a little more than a year away, slated for Oct. 3, 2023. MacKay said if the numbers are likely to change, the numbers will start to show that as people head back to work after summer vacations and begin to pay more attention to politics.

"We shouldn't forget though that we've had a lot of New Democratic governments over the years, including one recent reign that was 16 years, I believe," he said. "In some ways, the NDP are almost the natural governing party, if you want to look at it that way, of Manitoba."

As for why Manitobans are getting out to vote, most say they are motivated to elect a party they think is deserving, rather than to vote out a party they oppose. The poll shows three in ten respondents cast a ballot to do both. 

METHODOLOGY

Probe Research made these findings as a result of a survey of a random representative sample of 1,000 adults in Manitoba between Sept. 8 to 18. Probe Research said the results, with 95 per cent certainty, have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, however that margin of error is higher within the survey's population subgroups.