WINNIPEG -- As Manitoba prepares to begin the first phase of its plan to re-open the economy, some wonder how the province will do that without allowing the COVID-19 virus to re-emerge.   

The University of Manitoba’s emerging virus expert Jason Kindrachuk said the concept of herd immunity is getting more attention considering a COVID-19 vaccine is still months, if not years, away.

“Herd immunity is this idea that essentially we can get enough people in the community immune to the disease, that what ends up happening is that you can create pockets around people that aren’t immune or people who for whatever reason can’t get vaccinated,” said Kindrachuk. 

“What will happen is that they will essentially create a protective layer around those people so that even if you get, say something like COVID-19 breaking out in the community, you essentially have so many people that are vaccinated that the virus simply can’t move around.”

Kindrachuk said the difference this time is that people would not have immunity to COVID-19 through vaccination, but rather through the antibodies that come from actually contracting the infection and surviving it.

He said there are some issues with that approach.

“Based on what we know about this virus, herd immunity would likely be somewhere between 60 and 80 per cent of the population that would have to have actual immunity to the virus which means we would have to have that percentage of the population having been exposed to the virus just through natural transmission.  Everything that we’ve seen so far from around the globe suggests that says realistically the virus hasn’t spread nearly that far,” he said.

He said in many countries it appears the virus hasn’t spread much beyond five to ten per cent of the population, even though the virus transmits so readily.

PHYSICAL DISTANCING STILL ONLY EFFECTIVE CONTROL MEASURE

That means controlling COVID still relies heavily on physical distancing now and the hope of a vaccine in the not too distant future.

Kindrachuk said with the province set to begin phase one of the reopening plan on May 4, it’s inevitable that distancing rules may not be as closely followed as the public re-emerges from the homes they’ve been sheltering in for several weeks.

“Ultimately, what we have to think about is that as these places open up, there isn’t going to be the ability to enforce rules everywhere, so at every single business and every single campground. So that comes back to a social contract.  We know what we have to do to try and keep this virus contained, “ said Kindrachuk.

He said people need to realize that while it’s been a long winter and the weather is finally improving, physical distancing is still the only means of containing the virus.  

Kindrachuk noted some people are advocating for a looser approach to distancing, along the lines of what’s been done in Sweden to try to build herd immunity.  

Sweden has experienced a COVID death rate about 80 per cent of Canada’s despite the fact the Scandinavian country has only about 30 per cent of Canada’s population.

“Over time there will be discussion of whether the Swedish approach was a success or a failure, but in the meantime, we need to be considerate of the most vulnerable of us among the population,” he said.

Kindrachuk said if there’s a second wave of COVID-19, it’s not clear when it might hit or what it might look like in the context of herd immunity. 

     - with files from Nicole Dube and Rahim Ladhani