How Arctic warming is impacting global temperature increases

The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, which is causing global temperatures to increase at a quicker rate than the threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.

This is according to a new study published in the journal ‘Earth System Dynamics,’ which found that faster Arctic warming will lead to a global two-degree temperature rise being reached eight years earlier than if it were warming at the average rate.

University of Manitoba professor Julienne Stroeve, who was a lead researcher on this project, said the goal of the study was to understand how the Arctic is contributing to global warming and how quickly the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds of 1.5 C and 2 C will be broken.

“We really are, in my view, in this critical decade of action at the moment where if we don’t have our emissions [reduced] by the end of this decade, we’re for sure going to exceed 1.5 degrees,” she said.

Stroeve explained that the researchers used climate model simulations. This involved creating projections in which rapid Arctic warming was not taking place, and comparing these temperatures to those of the real-world models.

The team found that the models without the rapid Arctic warming breached the 1.5 C and 2 C Paris Agreement thresholds five and eight years later, respectively, than the real-world models.

“We used the climate models and we can look at if we don’t have the Arctic feedback what would the warming be when we do hit 1.5 or 2 degrees and how much would that warming be and when would that warming occur if you include the Arctic feedbacks,” Stroeve said.

Stroeve emphasized that the changes currently taking place in the Arctic are a key driver in global temperature increases, and stressed the importance of preserving the amount of ice and snow in the region.

“I do think it’s important to communicate how important this region is and why we should care,” she said.