Premier Kinew says Trump's tariffs would cause a recession in Manitoba

Tariffs on Canadian goods headed to the United States would mean a recession in Manitoba.

That is how Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew feels about comments from president-elect Donald Trump Monday.

Monday evening, Trump threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico the first day he takes office. Trump said he wants the two countries to deal with border issues, like drugs and migrants.

When asked about the situation Tuesday, Premier Kinew said this could really impact the province.

"The bottom line is it would mean a recession in our province, and we can't have that happen, especially as we're starting to make progress on health care, education, and making a lot of good investments," said Kinew.

The premier said the drug trade in Manitoba and Canada is something that needs to be addressed even without the threat of tariffs, so actions need to be taken to show the incoming administration that the province and country are serious.

"Manitobans want something done about drugs. So if we can tackle a major public safety issue that also helps the trade conversation with the US, I think it seems like a necessary step forward."

Kinew noted Manitoba trades with a number of states, from border states like North Dakota and Minnesota to states further south like Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and California.

According to a third quarter report from the province, 73 per cent of all Manitoba exports go to the United States, which accounts for $11.1 billion.

"So this really is an important time for us to show to an American audience that when it comes to trade, Manitoba is good for your jobs, good for your economy, and for this new administration, we have to show that we're serious about security."

Kinew also touched on the fact that more RCMP officers need to be hired to help with this problem. He said if more boots are on the ground, it will help bring the hammer down on those in the drug trafficking networks.

The premier plans on meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday and will share his thoughts on the topic and what needs to be done.

In a statement to CTV News Winnipeg, Keystone Agricultural Producers President Jill Verwey said any tariff would hurt Manitoba farmers.

"Anything that impedes the free flow of goods in between Canada and the US, in particular those agri-food exports from Manitoba which amounted to $4.53 billion in 2023 alone, would be detrimental to Manitoba farmers," she said.

"As our largest trading partner, Canada’s relationship with the US is one that is mutually beneficial for our heavily integrated economies. KAP supports the call from Canada’s premiers for the federal government to urgently strike a First Ministers’ meeting to strategize on future relations with the incoming US administration.”

Chuck Davidson, the president and CEO of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, hopes Trump rethinks this plan by the time he takes office, saying it could cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars.

"We recognize the importance of that relationship, and it's been long-standing," said Davidson. "This is probably not in the best interest of the United States or of Canada, because at the end of the day, it's going to cost on both sides of the borders. It's not good for either country. So we're really in a lose, lose situation."

Davidson said this tariff would affect several industries in Manitoba, from food production to critical minerals.

If tariffs are implemented, he said businesses will need to make some tough decisions on what the future looks like.

"Whether it be in terms of looking at different trading partners, looking at other opportunities, or looking in terms of, 'do we continue to operate?' What kind of situation could that look like from a workforce perspective?"

Davidson agrees with Kinew's comments that this has the potential to throw Manitoba and Canada into a recession.

"In my mind, it's an all hands-on-deck approach in terms of educating various governors and state senators as well about the importance of that Canada-US relationship, and let's not do anything that's going to significantly damage it."