Manitoba could see 1,000 cases a day in the new year due to Omicron variant: Roussin

Despite only six confirmed cases of Omicron in Manitoba, the province’s top doctor said it is only a matter of time before the new variant becomes the dominant strain, and 1,000 cases per day in the province could be possible early in the New Year.

In a media briefing Wednesday, Dr. Brent Roussin, the chief provincial public health officer, said data shows the Omicron variant to be much more transmissible than the delta variant.

“We know from other jurisdictions, once we see this spreading in the community, we are weeks away from it being our dominant strain, and so it is introduced here in Manitoba, we can expect to look like other jurisdictions in the very near future,” said Roussin.

Roussin said there are still questions on the severity of outcomes from Omicron, but due to its transmissibility, it would have to be significantly less for the variant not to be a threat.

In the U.K., Roussin said cases have doubled in about 2.5 days with Omicron while the delta variant was 34 days. Closer to home, Ontario is seeing cases double every three days.

If Manitoba sees similar transmission, there would be an average of 223 cases per day by Christmas Day and over 1,000 cases by the new year.

Accurate Manitoba modelling for growth of omicron cases is hard to come by due to the fact that there are few cases here, but if the province follows trends seen in other jurisdictions, Roussin said there will be exponential growth in infections.

“Like we know in the past, this is going to result in increased hospitalizations and ICU,” said Roussin.

Of the six confirmed cases here in the province, Roussin said two were travel-related and the other four were close contacts.

Two of the cases were in fully vaccinated and asymptomatic individuals, while the remaining four were in unvaccinated people, with one individual being symptomatic, but it was not a severe outcome.

“Our best protection against this variant, or any of the other variants that are circulating, is to be vaccinated,” said Roussin. “So we are making that plea to Manitobans to do whatever we can to get as many eligible people vaccinated.”

Roussin said that includes first and second doses as well as boosters in the next two weeks before holiday gatherings begin.

The full modelling can be viewed below.