Poll reveals Kinew’s NDP has double-digit lead over PCs among Winnipeg voters

New polling data finds if an election were held tomorrow, Manitoba would likely have a new government at the helm.

The new poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows Manitoba’s New Democrats with a five-point lead province-wide.

Wab Kinew and the NDP’s lead over Premier Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives is boosted by a double-digit advantage in Winnipeg. That equates to 54 per cent of the intended vote compared to 29 per cent for the Tories.

University of Manitoba political studies adjunct professor Christopher Adams says those numbers are in line with other polling in recent months.

“You can't win an election without winning Winnipeg, or at least a good part of Winnipeg,” Adams said in a phone interview Wednesday.

“As you see in that poll, there's 54 per cent of Winnipeg voters would prefer the NDP over the PCs, and that's a very large gap that you can't win an election if you're that far behind in Winnipeg.”

Winnipeg is home to 32 of the 57 seats in the provincial legislature.

Much of this currently advantageous position for the NDP is driven by overwhelming dissatisfaction with the provincial government of the day, the data revealed.

The poll suggests key sticking points are the Stefanson government’s handling of health-care and the cost of living.

Adams says the Tories seem to have changed their priorities over the past two years, likely to satisfy voter displeasure, with higher revenues to finance the shift.

“They've been doing more in the area of health-care spending. They've had many more announcements on the issue of cost of living, that they call affordability. They’ve been issuing cheques to the general public and to property owners.”

The Conservatives are strong in the less populated and less seat-rich regions outside of Winnipeg -- holding a 56 per cent to 28 per cent lead.

The online survey was conducted from May 30 to June 3 among 515 members of the Angus Reid Forum.

The sample size carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Meantime, Adams cautions the poll’s sample size is relatively small, and much can change between now and October’s election.

“They have a few months now still to catch up, but that's very tough news for the PCs with the Winnipeg poll.”

Full results from the poll can be found on the Angus Reid Institute’s website.