Poll shows significant lead for Glen Murray in Winnipeg mayor election

Former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray is currently the front-runner to become the city’s next mayor, according to a new poll released Thursday.

In its first poll examining the upcoming mayoral election conducted by Probe Research, Murray, who served as the city's mayor from 1998 to 2004, is the preferred candidate among 44 per cent of decided voters who responded to the poll.

“The former mayor is in a strong position entering the next phase of the campaign,” the polling document reads. “He benefits from a strong lead and the view his significant political experience matters.”

None of the remaining 11 candidates received more than 20 per cent of support in the poll, with St. James Councillor Scott Gillingham coming in second place among candidates with 16 per cent. Former Liberal MP Robert-Falcon Ouellette was in third place with 13 per cent.

Mary Agnes Welch with Probe Research said Murray is right now the “runaway favourite” at this point in the election, and offered several reasons as to why he is polling high right now.

“I think part of it is we're still in July, there's two months to go. People are maybe parking their vote a little bit in a place that they're comfortable with, a name that they know and that they're comfortable with,” she said. “I think the fact that there's so many people running for mayor right now is making it pretty confusing to even voters that are sort of paying attention.”

“And I think we do have a bit of nostalgia. You know, Winnipeggers are pretty down about things in the city right now. And I think we have a little bit of nostalgia for a time when maybe things were a little better when Glen Murray was mayor.”

Among the remaining candidates, Jenny Motkaluk, the runner-up in the 2018 election, received eight per cent support in the poll, while Shaun Loney received six per cent. Former Manitoba Liberal leader Rana Bokhari received four per cent support, and Rick Shone received three per cent support.

Don Woodstock, Jessica Peebles and Desmond Thomas all received two per cent support, while Chris Clacio and Idris Ademuyiwa Adelakun both received 1 per cent support.

As of Thursday, 12 candidates had declared they are running for mayor, with Sept. 20 as the deadline to file.

Welch said having a larger slate of candidates for mayor is not new for Winnipeg, citing Susan Thompson’s election, and says she is not expecting lots of vote-splitting, saying two or three candidates will usually rise to the top.

“Over time, over the campaign, when it really gets kind of rolling after Labour Day, voters tend to coalesce around certain candidates,” she said. “And I think we may even see some candidates, perhaps think about dropping off the ballot, looking at some of these numbers and maybe some future numbers.”

Welch added that Winnipeg mayoral election results are usually decisive, with the successful candidate winning by thousands of votes. She noted Murray’s lead right now is quite high, but said things can change in the months ahead.

“This is a snapshot in time,” she said. “A lot can change. Campaigns matter.”

Winnipeggers head to the polls on Oct. 26.

METHODOLOGY

Probe Research conducted the online survey of 622 Winnipeggers between July 14 and 15, 2022.

“As an online panel survey is a sample of convenience, no margin of error can be ascribed,” Probe said in its documents. “However, a random and representative non-convenience sample of 622 adults would have a margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.”