Should Manitobans be worried about flooding after this extra snowy winter?

With Manitobans experiencing one of the snowiest winters to date, many people may be worried about what this means for spring flooding.

As of Feb. 20, Winnipeg has received 156.6 centimetres of snow – the third-largest snowfall total on record when compared to other years up to Feb. 20.

However, according to Jay Doering, a civil engineering professor, the level of flooding has a lot to do with what happens in the spring.

In an interview on Wednesday, Doering explained that the later the snow melts, the larger the flood.

He added that because we don’t know what kind of temperatures we will get this spring, we don’t yet know what the rate of melting will be.

“We want a nice slow melt, some nice gentle temperatures now to get rid of some of that snow that we’ve accumulated,” he said.

“Let’s let it gently run off, get the soil thawed out and let’s get some moisture into the soil for our farmers.”

Doering said the other factors that determine flooding include soil moisture and the depth of frost.

“We all know it’s been a bitterly cold winter. We’ve been saved a little bit by the depth of the snowpack, but still, the frost is deeper than normal,” he said.

IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE

Doering said that since 1997 there have been “tremendous” upgrades to the province’s flood infrastructure, adding there are community ring dikes built to 1997 flood levels plus two feet.

“The Red will leave its banks, but the ring dikes will protect those communities,” he said.

He noted that people going down to The Forks will notice higher water levels than usual.

“It will probably be somewhere in the range of 18 to 19 feet at James Avenue. That puts the river walk about 10 feet underwater,” he said.

Looking even more broadly, Doering said Manitoba’s lakes are relatively low so there is more room for the water to park.

He noted the Assiniboine watershed, which is larger, deeper and longer than the Red, doesn’t have as much snow in it, adding that it also has the Shellmouth Reservoir.

“So Manitobans will be fine. I expect this is going to look like a 2020 flood and no one even noticed the 2020 flood, because of COVID,” Doering said,

- With files from CTV’s Rachel Lagace.