Study suggests Arctic to see more rain than snow earlier than expected
Research suggests that rain will become more common in the Arctic than snow and, because of climate change, it could happen earlier than predicted with severe consequences for the region's environment, its people, and its animals.
A study led by University of Manitoba researchers published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications says greater average rainfall amounts than previously projected are possible by 2100. And autumn rains could overtake snowfall 20 years earlier than first thought because of rapid global warming and loss of sea ice.
"When we talk about this happening in 2100, it seems like such a long time away, but it's only 80 years," said Michelle McCrystall, the study's lead researcher and a post-doctoral fellow at the university.
"That's the next generation. And if we continue the trajectory that we're going, a lot of issues might happen even faster than what we've projected."
McCrystall said the consequences of increased rain in the Arctic are huge, including flooding and melting of permafrost upon which homes, roads and airstrips are built. A rainy North would also have devastating consequences for people and wildlife.
The study says it could bring "catastrophic starvation events" to caribou, reindeer and muskox, because thick ice crusts would form from the moisture when the air cooled, making it impossible for the animals to forage.
"It's not just a problem for the reindeer, caribou and muskox, but for the people of the North that depend on them as well," said Mark Serreze, co-author of the study and director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
Some of the changes are already happening, McCrystall said. In August, rain fell for the first time in recorded history on the highest point of the Greenland ice sheet.
"The fact that we're getting rainfall on the summit of Greenland right now, and that we're maybe going to get more rainfall into the future -- it kind of staggers me."
McCrystall said it has always been known that precipitation patterns will change in the Arctic because of climate change, but not at the rate that's being seen now.
"Our projections show this will be much more intense and much more extreme than we previously thought it might be."
McCrystall said the implications of more rain in the Arctic mean that mitigating measures, including the Paris agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, are even more critical.
"If we can fall within this 1.5-degree limit, most of the Arctic at least will remain snowfall-dominated," she said.
McCrystall said she wants the study to serve as a further wake-up call for world leaders to meet global climate targets.
"I don't want this to be all doom and gloom. I want this to provide some incentive, that if we stay within these limits as set out by our global leaders, these changes won't happen," she said.
"Hopefully, this is a further example of why we need these global climate policies."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 30, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
The story of how a B.C. man found his birth mother
After his adopted parents died, Dave Rogers set out to learn more about his birth mother. DNA results and a little help from friendly strangers would put him on a path to a small town in England.
Montreal man on the hook for thousands of dollars after a feature on his Tesla caused an accident
A Montreal man is warning Tesla drivers about using the Smart Summon feature after his vehicle hit another in a parking lot.
Italy's white-collar mafia is making a business killing
Italy's mafia rarely dirties its hands with blood these days. Extortion rackets have gone out of fashion and murders are largely frowned upon by the godfathers.
Spike in 'violent rhetoric' since Oct. 7 attack from 'extremist actors,' CSIS warns
The Israel-Hamas war has led to a spike in 'violent rhetoric' from 'extremist actors' that could prompt some in Canada to turn to violence, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service warns.
Russia announces nuclear weapon drills after angry exchange with senior Western officials
Russia plans to hold drills simulating the use of battlefield nuclear weapons, the Defense Ministry announced Monday, days after the Kremlin reacted angrily to comments by senior Western officials about the war in Ukraine and Moscow warned that tensions with the West are deepening.
Summer forecast: What to expect as El Nino weakens
As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.
Actor Bernard Hill, of 'Titanic' and 'Lord of the Rings,' has died at 79
Actor Bernard Hill, who delivered a rousing cry before leading his people into battle in 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' and went down with the ship as the captain in 'Titanic,' has died.
Dash cam catches moment suspected drunk driver hits parked car, sends it careening into North Shore flower shop
Police say it’s fortunate no one was injured or killed in a collision at North Vancouver’s Park and Tilford shopping centre Saturday evening that sent one vehicle careening into a flower shop and another into a set of concrete barriers outside a Winners store.
Israeli army tells Palestinians to evacuate parts of Gaza's Rafah ahead of an expected assault
The Israeli army on Monday ordered tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza's southern city of Rafah to start evacuating from the area, signalling that a long-promised ground invasion there could be imminent.