A snowy winter and a wet fall continue to cause spring flooding concerns across Manitoba.

The province released its first full flood outlook of 2017 on Monday afternoon.

While the risk of overland flooding this spring remains “moderate to major” across much of Manitoba, the province said the magnitude of flooding remains dependent on future weather conditions.

The Red, Souris, Pembina, Roseau and Lower Assiniboine rivers are all at major risk of flooding, forecasters said.

“The chance that the river goes over the bank is very high,” said Fisaha Unduche, director of the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre. “Once it goes over the bank, some areas the damage is very small, some areas very high, some areas only agricultural land is flooded, some areas community dikes have to be closed.”

“When we say major flooding we’re talking about the probability, the chance of going over the banks. We’re referring to the risk of the river overtopping the banks.”

The province said Environment Canada’s long-term weather forecast shows an equal chance of below normal, near normal and above normal precipitation for the next three months.

The flood outlook states with unfavourable weather conditions in the future, such as lots of rain and a fast melt, there is a major risk of flooding on the Red River, which could result in levels similar to 2011 from Emerson to Ste. Agathe.

In 2011, highway 75 at Morris had to be closed because of flooding.

With normal conditions, the flood outlook states levels would be similar to 2010 from Emerson to Ste. Agathe. Highway 75 at Morris wasn’t affected that year.

“The bridge at Morris, the water was almost at the deck height so it’s precariously close,” said Doug McMahon, Manitoba Infrastructure’s assistant deputy minister of water management and structures.

Officials said the recent warm weather has helped, but only in a minor way.

Officials said the early melt caused the snowpack to recede south of Grand Forks, North Dakota, which has “slightly reduced” the potential for flooding on the Red River in Manitoba. However, it has also left the soil saturated and prone to high run-off volumes from future precipitation, the province said.

On the lower Assiniboine River normal weather would result in moderate flooding. The flood outlook states levels would be similar to 1995 from Brandon to Portage.

Unfavourable weather conditions may result in water levels slightly lower than 2011, or the summer of 2014 from Brandon to Portage.

McMahon said based on this latest forecast flood protection levels in all Manitoba communities are adequate, but that’s not enough to ease tensions in flood prone parts of Manitoba.

Brian Wolfe has lived in the R.M. of St. Francois Xavier for the past five years. The Assiniboine River runs right behind his property.

He said this time of year is always difficult especially after his home was surrounded by water during the flood of 2014 following heavy summer rainfall.

"We're always concerned," said Wolfe. "The forecasting is very difficult to do. There was no forecasting for 2014, that came out of the blue."

"It [the forecast] can change within a couple days either way. At this point we just kind of wait and see."

Wolfe built a dike around his property following the 2014, flood but it hasn't been put to the test.

He hopes it's able to withstand whatever amount of water comes his way this spring.

Wolfe would like to see the province develop a long term strategy to deal with spring flooding along the Assiniboine River.

The second and final flood outlook will be released in late March.