Manitoba health officials release COVID-19 modelling
WINNIPEG -- Provincial health officials introduced COVID-19 modelling for Manitoba on Wednesday, showing the data supports the easing of public health measures.
The province said the model was created using data in the scientific literature from other jurisdictions and with input from experts in the province.
The model suggested that if the province didn't introduce social and physical distancing then Manitoba was projected to have 933 cases by April 25 and over 2,000 cases by mid-May. Under the current measures, Manitoba had 267 cases on April 25.
It also shows that with current health measures in place Manitoba could expect around 6,250 cases if the measures stay in place for a year.
Dr. Brent Roussin, the province's chief medical health officer, said modelling isn't able to project all possible outcomes and that the model must constantly be revised.
MODELLING NOT A CRYSTAL BALL
"Modelling again is an abstraction, (it) can't project all possible outcomes, (it's) not a crystal ball, but can help in certain aspects of planning, but it is just one tool we utilize," said Roussin. "We know outbreaks evolve overtime, things like the behaviors of the public can change outcomes. So it doesn't tell us what will happen, it just tells us the possibilities of what will happen."
Roussin also mentioned that modelling numbers for the year aren't all that helpful and are listed to just give a sense of what they could possibly look like.
"When you model that far in the future they're not all that valuable numbers. We can look at that, but again we're going to be changing our public health measures based on what we see. So it's going to be hard to predict what things will look like in a year," Roussin added. "We could be looking at a pharmaceutical intervention by that time as well."
MODELLING SUPPORTS EASING HEALTH MEASURES
The province also noted that the data in the modelling supports easing public health measures.
The modelling also shows there is a 40 per cent vacancy rate of acute care medical and surgical hospital beds. As of April 26, 977 beds are vacant.
There is also 86 adult intensive care hospital beds and as of April 22, 29 of those beds are vacant, showing a 34 per cent vacancy rate.
Health officials also announced one new case of COVID-19 in Manitoba, bringing the total to 273 cases.
Roussin said five people are in hospital and no one is in intensive care.
There are currently 54 active cases and 213 people have recovered. The death toll remains at six.
There were 448 tests performed on Tuesday at the Cadham Provincial Laboratory, bringing the total to 24,304 since early February.
You can see the modelling data for Manitoba below: